Scenarios: the Future of the Nation-State

The Nation States Dominate the Net	The Net Dominates the Nation States
Closed Borders Closed or very restricted borders between national information networks; nations jealously guard their information infrastructure from other nations, fearing crippling attacks; information channels between nations narrow and expensive; concerns over lack of common agreements over copyrights and patents further inhibit the international transfer of information	Community World Nations replaced by on-line communities and city-state environments; people consider themselves as citizens of their communities rather than their countries; limited movement of information between communities; public infrastructure strained; on-line communities begin to make presence in real world offering services, protection that governments fails to provide; alliance and conflict between communities; criminals and spies infiltrate communities with false identifications.
International Cooperation Nations agree on standards, make treaties to recognize each other's 'cultural' concerns; nations agree to assist one another in enforcing local legislation regarding permissible content; international agreements successfully regulate and compensate for use of copyrighted and patented material	Internet Anarchy Nations overwhelmed by anarchy; life primarily focused on the individual; work decentralized, independent of geography; communication technology proliferates and dominates society; Internet standards remain intact and the Net becomes the chief medium of data exchange; national governments not able to exercise significant control of the Net; unable to prevent the free flow of information; third parties offer protection and other services, often with dire punishments; information bandits rampant; secure networks within the Internet begin to develop

The Nation States Dominate the Net

The Net Dominates the Nation States

Closed Borders

Closed or very restricted borders between national information networks; nations jealously guard their information infrastructure from other nations, fearing crippling attacks; information channels between nations narrow and expensive; concerns over lack of common agreements over copyrights and patents further inhibit the international transfer of information

Community World

Nations replaced by on-line communities and city-state environments; people consider themselves as citizens of their communities rather than their countries; limited movement of information between communities; public infrastructure strained; on-line communities begin to make presence in real world offering services, protection that governments fails to provide; alliance and conflict between communities; criminals and spies infiltrate communities with false identifications.

International Cooperation

Nations agree on standards, make treaties to recognize each other's 'cultural' concerns; nations agree to assist one another in enforcing local legislation regarding permissible content; international agreements successfully regulate and compensate for use of copyrighted and patented material

Internet Anarchy

Nations overwhelmed by anarchy; life primarily focused on the individual; work decentralized, independent of geography; communication technology proliferates and dominates society; Internet standards remain intact and the Net becomes the chief medium of data exchange; national governments not able to exercise significant control of the Net; unable to prevent the free flow of information; third parties offer protection and other services, often with dire punishments; information bandits rampant; secure networks within the Internet begin to develop